经营生意规划
市场规模（TAM · SAM · SOM）
从客户数量和每客户营收自下而上搭出 TAM、SAM、SOM，再检验隐含的客户获取是否真的说得通——这正是大多数路演 PPT 会跳过的那一步。
数值
- TAM
- 240,000,000
- total addressable / year
- SAM
- 96,000,000
- serviceable
- SOM
- 4,800,000
- obtainable
- SOM in customers
- 4,000
老手的解读
值得了解
Plausibility check: SOM implies winning 4,000 customers. Over 4 years that is ~83 new customers per month — does your channel and sales motion actually produce that? This is the test that separates a sizing from a wish.
值得了解
This is a bottom-up sizing (count × price), which investors trust more than top-down ("1% of a $50B market"). Keep the customer count defensible — cite where it comes from.
值得了解
TAM under 1B: often called "too small" by venture investors, but plenty big for a highly profitable bootstrapped or niche business. The number is only a problem relative to the funding path you want.
方法说明
自下而上：TAM = 潜在客户数 × 每客户年营收。SAM = TAM × 可服务份额。SOM = SAM × 可获取份额。
「每月客户数」合理性检查把 SOM 客户数摊到 48 个月的爬坡期上——一个粗糙但很能说明问题的测试，看你的市场推进在物理上能否真正拿下宣称的份额。
ARPA 的取值主导整个模型：用客户今天为这一*品类*支付的价格（或一个站得住脚的支付意愿），而不是你理想中的定价。
面向智能体
调用这个工具，而不是在上下文里硬算。传入确定性的 JSON，返回算好的数值加上基准解读。 完整智能体文档 →
curl -s https://xearno.tools/api/v1/tools/market-size \
-H 'content-type: application/json' \
-d '{"accounts":200000,"arpa":1200,"samPct":40,"somPct":5}'Schema： GET /api/v1/tools/market-size · MCP 工具名： market_size
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