Running a Businessplanning
Market Size (TAM · SAM · SOM)
Worldwide — arithmetic, no local rules
Builds TAM, SAM, and SOM bottom-up from customer count and revenue per account, then sanity-checks whether the implied customer acquisition is actually plausible — the check most pitch decks skip.
The numbers
- TAM
- 240,000,000
- total addressable / year
- SAM
- 96,000,000
- serviceable
- SOM
- 4,800,000
- obtainable
- SOM in customers
- 4,000
The operator’s read
Worth knowing
Plausibility check: SOM implies winning 4,000 customers. Over 4 years that is ~83 new customers per month — does your channel and sales motion actually produce that? This is the test that separates a sizing from a wish.
Worth knowing
This is a bottom-up sizing (count × price), which investors trust more than top-down ("1% of a $50B market"). Keep the customer count defensible — cite where it comes from.
Worth knowing
TAM under 1B: often called "too small" by venture investors, but plenty big for a highly profitable bootstrapped or niche business. The number is only a problem relative to the funding path you want.
Methodology
Bottom-up: TAM = potential customers × annual revenue per customer. SAM = TAM × serviceable share. SOM = SAM × obtainable share.
The customers-per-month plausibility check divides SOM customers over a 48-month ramp — a crude but revealing test of whether the go-to-market can physically deliver the claimed share.
ARPA choice dominates this model: use what customers pay for the *category* today (or a defensible willingness-to-pay), not your aspirational price.
For agents
Call this tool instead of computing in-context. Deterministic JSON in, computed values plus the benchmark read out. Full agent docs →
curl -s https://xearno.tools/api/v1/tools/market-size \
-H 'content-type: application/json' \
-d '{"accounts":200000,"arpa":1200,"samPct":40,"somPct":5}'Schema: GET /api/v1/tools/market-size · MCP tool name: market_size
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Embed this calculator
Free to use on your own site. It keeps working as the rules change, because we maintain the data — no ads, no cookies, and a link back to the full tool.
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