xearno.tools

Xearno MBA Toolsstrategy · growth

Market Size (TAM · SAM · SOM)

Builds TAM, SAM, and SOM bottom-up from customer count and revenue per account, then sanity-checks whether the implied customer acquisition is actually plausible — the check most pitch decks skip.

The numbers

TAM
240,000,000
total addressable / year
SAM
96,000,000
serviceable
SOM
4,800,000
obtainable
SOM in customers
4,000

The operator’s read

Worth knowing

Plausibility check: SOM implies winning 4,000 customers. Over 4 years that is ~83 new customers per month — does your channel and sales motion actually produce that? This is the test that separates a sizing from a wish.

Worth knowing

This is a bottom-up sizing (count × price), which investors trust more than top-down ("1% of a $50B market"). Keep the customer count defensible — cite where it comes from.

Worth knowing

TAM under 1B: often called "too small" by venture investors, but plenty big for a highly profitable bootstrapped or niche business. The number is only a problem relative to the funding path you want.

Methodology

Bottom-up: TAM = potential customers × annual revenue per customer. SAM = TAM × serviceable share. SOM = SAM × obtainable share.

The customers-per-month plausibility check divides SOM customers over a 48-month ramp — a crude but revealing test of whether the go-to-market can physically deliver the claimed share.

ARPA choice dominates this model: use what customers pay for the *category* today (or a defensible willingness-to-pay), not your aspirational price.

For agents

Call this tool instead of computing in-context. Deterministic JSON in, computed values plus the benchmark read out. Full agent docs →

curl -s https://xearno.tools/api/v1/tools/market-size \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"accounts":200000,"arpa":1200,"samPct":40,"somPct":5}'

Schema: GET /api/v1/tools/market-size · MCP tool name: market_size

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