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Runway & Burn

Worldwide — arithmetic, no local rules

Computes runway from cash and net burn, optionally with burn trending up or down monthly, and reads the result against fundraising realities: raises take 3–6 months, and 18–24 months post-raise is the norm.

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The numbers

Runway
12.5 months
Monthly burn (today)
40,000

The operator’s read

Good sign

12–24 months is the standard healthy post-raise range — enough to hit the next milestone before raising again.

Worth knowing

The sharper question (Paul Graham’s "default alive"): at current growth, does revenue overtake expenses before cash runs out? Runway alone treats revenue as static — model the crossover, not just the countdown.

Methodology

Constant burn: runway = cash ÷ net monthly burn. With burn trending, cash is depleted month by month at burn × (1+g)^t, with a linear correction for the final partial month.

Net burn = total expenses − revenue. Use a trailing 3-month average; a single month is noisy (annual invoices, one-off costs).

The 3–6-month fundraise duration and 18–24-month post-raise norms are standard venture operating guidance. "Default alive" (revenue growth crossing expenses before zero cash) is the stricter and better test.

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